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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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